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Águilas Doradas vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2018

Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Once Caldas
Once Caldas
J. Pineda 22'
1/26/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 2Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 168+ matches

Águilas Doradas43%
×Draw28%
Once Caldas28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas Doradas
1.27
Once Caldas
0.96

Águilas Doradas creates 32% more chances

Season form · 170 home / 168 away

creates per match

Águilas Doradas
1.29
Once Caldas
0.86

allows per match

Águilas Doradas
1.05
Once Caldas
1.26

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par
Once Caldas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Once Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw
72%
Águilas Doradas or Once Caldas
72%
Draw or Once Caldas
57%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
20%
Once Caldas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
72%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
36%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
14%
Once Caldas 1+ goals
62%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
25%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
61%
Once Caldas (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.05 · 170 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.29 + Once Caldas defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Once Caldas attack 0.86 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more
43%
level
28%
Once Caldas scores more
28%

Águilas Doradas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
J. RiquettOnce CaldasOnce Caldas · D
7.7

Match Events

22'
J. Pineda↳ F. Salazar
45'
J. Cardona
45+1'
J. Rivas
53'
J. Blanco
55'
J. Salazar
59'
J. Cardona
59'
J. Cardona
61'
A. Vásquez← J. Blanco
61'
W. De La Rosa← J. Caballero
61'
Y. Murillo← B. Arce
65'
M. Puerta
71'
J. Díaz← J. Pineda
76'
F. Cifuentes← S. Mera
76'
R. Torres← E. Beltrán
89'
A. Estacio← Jesús Rivas

Possession

59%Águilas

Shots

9Águilas

Pass accuracy

52%Águilas

Statistics

ÁguilasOnce
Overview
59%Possession41%
9Total Shots6
7Corners6
13Fouls7
Shots
9Total Shots6
3On Target3
5Off Target2
1Blocked1
3Inside Box2
6Outside Box4
Passing
59%Possession41%
527Total Passes355
420Accurate Passes259
80%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls7
4Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Águilas Doradas vs Once Caldas

Águilas Doradas beat Once Caldas 1-0 in Primera A on January 26, 2024.

Goals: J. Pineda (22').

Águilas Doradas controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Grisales in Rionegro, Antioquia.