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Łomża vs Olimpia Elbląg — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Łomża
Łomża
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Olimpia Elbląg
Olimpia Elbląg
9/6/2025III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group I - 7Stadion Miejski w Lomzy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Łomża58%
×Draw21%
Olimpia Elbląg21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Łomża
2.02
Olimpia Elbląg
1.12

Łomża creates 80% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Łomża
2.10
Olimpia Elbląg
1.12

allows per match

Łomża
1.12
Olimpia Elbląg
1.94

finishing

Łomża+0.00on par
Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łomża ↓

Olimpia Elbląg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Łomża or draw
79%
Łomża or Olimpia Elbląg
79%
Draw or Olimpia Elbląg
42%

Winning margin

Łomża wins by 2+
35%
Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Łomża 1+ goals
87%
Łomża 2+ goals
60%
Łomża 3+ goals
33%
Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals
67%
Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals
31%
Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Łomża (draw refunded)
74%
Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łomża at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Olimpia Elbląg away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łomża attack 2.10 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.02

Olimpia Elbląg attack 1.12 + Łomża defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Łomża scores more
58%
level
21%
Olimpia Elbląg scores more
21%

Łomża at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Łomża will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Łomża vs Olimpia Elbląg

Łomża beat Olimpia Elbląg 3-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Lomzy in Lomza.