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Olimpia Elbląg vs Łomża — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Olimpia Elbląg
Olimpia Elbląg
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Łomża
Łomża
3/28/2026III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group I - 24Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Olimpia Elbląg28%
×Draw23%
Łomża48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Elbląg
1.32
Łomża
1.79

Łomża creates 36% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.41
Łomża
1.76

allows per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.82
Łomża
1.24

finishing

Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par
Łomża+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Elbląg ↓

Łomża →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Olimpia Elbląg or draw
52%
Olimpia Elbląg or Łomża
77%
Draw or Łomża
72%

Winning margin

Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+
12%
Łomża wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals
73%
Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals
38%
Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals
15%
Łomża 1+ goals
83%
Łomża 2+ goals
53%
Łomża 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)
37%
Łomża (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Elbląg at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Łomża away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Elbląg attack 1.41 + Łomża defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Łomża attack 1.76 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Olimpia Elbląg scores more
28%
level
23%
Łomża scores more
48%

Łomża at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Łomża will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpia Elbląg vs Łomża

Łomża beat Olimpia Elbląg 3-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 28, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Elblag.