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Łomża vs Mławianka Mława — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Łomża
Łomża
FT
2 – 1
Mławianka Mława
Mławianka Mława
5/25/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Łomża54%
×Draw22%
Mławianka Mława24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Łomża
2.02
Mławianka Mława
1.29

Łomża creates 57% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Łomża
2.10
Mławianka Mława
1.46

allows per match

Łomża
1.12
Mławianka Mława
1.94

finishing

Łomża+0.00on par
Mławianka Mława+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łomża ↓

Mławianka Mława →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Łomża or draw
76%
Łomża or Mławianka Mława
78%
Draw or Mławianka Mława
46%

Winning margin

Łomża wins by 2+
32%
Mławianka Mława wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Łomża 1+ goals
87%
Łomża 2+ goals
60%
Łomża 3+ goals
33%
Mławianka Mława 1+ goals
72%
Mławianka Mława 2+ goals
37%
Mławianka Mława 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Łomża (draw refunded)
69%
Mławianka Mława (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łomża at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Mławianka Mława away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.94 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łomża attack 2.10 + Mławianka Mława defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.02

Mławianka Mława attack 1.46 + Łomża defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Łomża scores more
54%
level
22%
Mławianka Mława scores more
24%

Łomża at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Łomża will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Łomża vs Mławianka Mława

Łomża beat Mławianka Mława 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Łomża.