Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mławianka Mława vs Łomża — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Mławianka Mława
Mławianka Mława
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Łomża
Łomża
11/15/2025III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group I - 17Stadion MOSiR Mlawa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mławianka Mława38%
×Draw23%
Łomża39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mławianka Mława
1.69
Łomża
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

Mławianka Mława
2.15
Łomża
1.76

allows per match

Mławianka Mława
1.68
Łomża
1.24

finishing

Mławianka Mława+0.00on par
Łomża+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mławianka Mława ↓

Łomża →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Mławianka Mława or draw
61%
Mławianka Mława or Łomża
77%
Draw or Łomża
62%

Winning margin

Mławianka Mława wins by 2+
19%
Łomża wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Mławianka Mława 1+ goals
82%
Mławianka Mława 2+ goals
50%
Mławianka Mława 3+ goals
24%
Łomża 1+ goals
82%
Łomża 2+ goals
51%
Łomża 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Mławianka Mława (draw refunded)
49%
Łomża (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mławianka Mława at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.68 · 68 matches

Łomża away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mławianka Mława attack 2.15 + Łomża defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.69

Łomża attack 1.76 + Mławianka Mława defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mławianka Mława scores more
38%
level
23%
Łomża scores more
39%

Łomża at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Łomża will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Mławianka Mława 0–1 Łomża

Łomża beat Mławianka Mława 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR Mlawa in Mlawa.