Łomża 1–1 Legionovia Legionowo: Result & Stats

Łomża

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Legionovia Legionowo

4/6/2024

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Łomża48%

×Draw23%

Legionovia Legionowo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁomżaExpected goals in this matchLegionovia Legionowo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.41

Łomża

1.86

Legionovia Legionowo

1.41

Łomża creates 32% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 70 away

2.10

creates per match

1.69

1.12

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Łomża

2.10

Legionovia Legionowo

1.69

allows per match

Łomża

1.12

Legionovia Legionowo

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Łomża+0.00on par

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łomża ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Łomża or draw

71%

Łomża or Legionovia Legionowo

77%

Draw or Legionovia Legionowo

52%

Winning margin

Łomża wins by 2+

27%

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Łomża 1+ goals

84%

Łomża 2+ goals

55%

Łomża 3+ goals

28%

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals

76%

Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals

41%

Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Łomża (draw refunded)

62%

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łomża at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łomża attack 2.10 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.86

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.69 + Łomża defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Łomża scores more

48%

level

23%

Legionovia Legionowo scores more

29%

Łomża at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Łomża will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff