Legionovia Legionowo 3–0 Łomża: Result & Stats

Legionovia Legionowo

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Łomża

9/9/2023

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo40%

×Draw24%

Łomża36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legionovia LegionowoExpected goals in this matchŁomża

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.51

Legionovia Legionowo

1.62

Łomża

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 51 away

2.00

creates per match

1.76

1.26

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo

2.00

Łomża

1.76

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo

1.26

Łomża

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Łomża+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Łomża →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw

64%

Legionovia Legionowo or Łomża

76%

Draw or Łomża

60%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+

20%

Łomża wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals

80%

Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals

48%

Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals

22%

Łomża 1+ goals

78%

Łomża 2+ goals

44%

Łomża 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)

53%

Łomża (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Łomża away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 2.00 + Łomża defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.62

Łomża attack 1.76 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more

40%

level

24%

Łomża scores more

36%

Legionovia Legionowo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff