Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Omonia Nicosia vs Olympiakos — 1. Division 2019

Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olympiakos
Olympiakos
A. Savva 85'
E. Salli 90+2'
5/20/20221. Division1. Division · Relegation Round - 10Neo GSP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Omonia Nicosia63%
×Draw23%
Olympiakos14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omonia Nicosia
1.73
Olympiakos
0.66

Omonia Nicosia creates 162% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Omonia Nicosia
2.18
Olympiakos
0.77

allows per match

Omonia Nicosia
0.55
Olympiakos
1.27

finishing

Omonia Nicosia+0.42scores more
Olympiakos+0.40scores more

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omonia Nicosia ↓

Olympiakos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Omonia Nicosia or draw
86%
Omonia Nicosia or Olympiakos
77%
Draw or Olympiakos
37%

Winning margin

Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+
36%
Olympiakos wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals
82%
Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals
52%
Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals
25%
Olympiakos 1+ goals
48%
Olympiakos 2+ goals
14%
Olympiakos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)
82%
Olympiakos (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omonia Nicosia at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.55 · 5 matches

Olympiakos away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.27 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omonia Nicosia attack 2.18 + Olympiakos defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.73

Olympiakos attack 0.77 + Omonia Nicosia defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Omonia Nicosia scores more
63%
level
23%
Olympiakos scores more
14%

Omonia Nicosia at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
Panagiotis Zachariou
16'
Alois Confais
27'
Modou Diagne
46'
A. Asimenos← F. Bachirou
46'
E. Salli← F. Eftychidis
46'
Thiago Santos← Z. Savva
61'
P. Wilson← S. Charalambous
66'
M. Lovera← P. Zachariou
66'
M. Šćepović← E. Asante
66'
A. Savva← P. Psaltis
73'
H. Foti← Sambinha
73'
C. Karayiannis← M. Christodoulou
78'
N. Panagiotou← Héctor Yuste
85'
A. Savva
90+2'
E. Salli

Statistics

OmoniaOlympiakos
Overview
3Corners4
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

1. Division: Omonia Nicosia 1–1 Olympiakos

Omonia Nicosia and Olympiakos drew 1-1 in 1. Division on May 20, 2022.

Goals: A. Savva (85'), E. Salli (90+2').

The match was played at Neo GSP in Levkosía.