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Olympiakos vs Omonia Nicosia — 1. Division 2019

Olympiakos
Olympiakos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia
L. Loizou 34'
2/20/20231. Division1. Division · Round 24Makareio Stadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Olympiakos29%
×Draw27%
Omonia Nicosia44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympiakos
1.04
Omonia Nicosia
1.36

Omonia Nicosia creates 31% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 118 away

creates per match

Olympiakos
0.97
Omonia Nicosia
1.57

allows per match

Olympiakos
1.16
Omonia Nicosia
1.10

finishing

Olympiakos+0.00on par
Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos ↓

Omonia Nicosia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Olympiakos or draw
56%
Olympiakos or Omonia Nicosia
73%
Draw or Omonia Nicosia
71%

Winning margin

Olympiakos wins by 2+
11%
Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Olympiakos 1+ goals
65%
Olympiakos 2+ goals
28%
Olympiakos 3+ goals
9%
Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals
74%
Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals
39%
Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos (draw refunded)
39%
Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

Omonia Nicosia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos attack 0.97 + Omonia Nicosia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Omonia Nicosia attack 1.57 + Olympiakos defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Olympiakos scores more
29%
level
27%
Omonia Nicosia scores more
44%

Omonia Nicosia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
Bryan Alceus
34'
L. Loizou
42'
Pierre Bardy
43'
Ioannis Kousoulos
46'
Ádám Lang
46'
P. Giakoumakis← S. Charalambous
59'
P. Psaltis← A. Matthews
59'
F. Papoulis← Ismael Tajouri
64'
P. Psychas← B. Alceus
64'
S. Hendriks← O. Koroma
72'
J. Lecjaks← F. Kitsos
72'
P. Zachariou← K. Ansarifard
72'
C. Charalampous← L. Loizou
80'
E. Salli← T. Gorupec
80'
L. Enoh← P. Bardy
84'
Jan Lecjaks

Shots

10Olympiakos

Statistics

OlympiakosOmonia
Overview
10Total Shots8
8Corners2
10Fouls11
Shots
10Total Shots8
4On Target3
5Off Target4
1Blocked1
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls11
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

1. Division: Olympiakos 0–1 Omonia Nicosia

Omonia Nicosia beat Olympiakos 1-0 in 1. Division on February 20, 2023.

Goals: L. Loizou (34').

The match was played at Makareio Stadio in Lefkosía.