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Omonia Nicosia vs Nea Salamis — 1. Division 2019

Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nea Salamis
Nea Salamis
12/22/20241. Division1. Division · Round 15Neo GSP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Omonia Nicosia55%
×Draw25%
Nea Salamis20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omonia Nicosia
1.65
Nea Salamis
0.90

Omonia Nicosia creates 83% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 88 away

creates per match

Omonia Nicosia
1.79
Nea Salamis
1.11

allows per match

Omonia Nicosia
0.69
Nea Salamis
1.50

finishing

Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par
Nea Salamis+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omonia Nicosia ↓

Nea Salamis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Omonia Nicosia or draw
80%
Omonia Nicosia or Nea Salamis
75%
Draw or Nea Salamis
45%

Winning margin

Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+
30%
Nea Salamis wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals
81%
Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals
49%
Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals
23%
Nea Salamis 1+ goals
59%
Nea Salamis 2+ goals
23%
Nea Salamis 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)
73%
Nea Salamis (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omonia Nicosia at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.69 · 117 matches

Nea Salamis away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.50 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omonia Nicosia attack 1.79 + Nea Salamis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Nea Salamis attack 1.11 + Omonia Nicosia defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Omonia Nicosia scores more
55%
level
25%
Nea Salamis scores more
20%

Omonia Nicosia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Omonia Nicosia 3–0 Nea Salamis

Omonia Nicosia beat Nea Salamis 3-0 in 1. Division on December 22, 2024.

The match was played at Neo GSP in Levkosía.