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Nea Salamis vs Omonia Nicosia — 1. Division 2019

Nea Salamis
Nea Salamis
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia
9/1/20241. Division1. Division · Round 2Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Nea Salamis28%
×Draw25%
Omonia Nicosia47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nea Salamis
1.18
Omonia Nicosia
1.61

Omonia Nicosia creates 36% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 118 away

creates per match

Nea Salamis
1.26
Omonia Nicosia
1.57

allows per match

Nea Salamis
1.65
Omonia Nicosia
1.10

finishing

Nea Salamis+0.00on par
Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nea Salamis ↓

Omonia Nicosia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Nea Salamis or draw
53%
Nea Salamis or Omonia Nicosia
75%
Draw or Omonia Nicosia
72%

Winning margin

Nea Salamis wins by 2+
11%
Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Nea Salamis 1+ goals
69%
Nea Salamis 2+ goals
33%
Nea Salamis 3+ goals
12%
Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals
80%
Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals
48%
Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Nea Salamis (draw refunded)
37%
Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nea Salamis at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.65 · 88 matches

Omonia Nicosia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nea Salamis attack 1.26 + Omonia Nicosia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Omonia Nicosia attack 1.57 + Nea Salamis defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nea Salamis scores more
28%
level
25%
Omonia Nicosia scores more
47%

Omonia Nicosia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nea Salamis vs Omonia Nicosia

Omonia Nicosia beat Nea Salamis 3-2 in 1. Division on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi in Larnaca.