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Omonia Nicosia vs Fehérvár FC — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fehérvár FC
Fehérvár FC
8/8/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundNeo GSP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Omonia Nicosia51%
×Draw25%
Fehérvár FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omonia Nicosia
1.58
Fehérvár FC
1.00

Omonia Nicosia creates 58% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

creates per match

Omonia Nicosia
1.83
Fehérvár FC
1.17

allows per match

Omonia Nicosia
0.83
Fehérvár FC
1.33

finishing

Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par
Fehérvár FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omonia Nicosia ↓

Fehérvár FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Omonia Nicosia or draw
76%
Omonia Nicosia or Fehérvár FC
75%
Draw or Fehérvár FC
49%

Winning margin

Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+
26%
Fehérvár FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals
79%
Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals
47%
Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals
21%
Fehérvár FC 1+ goals
63%
Fehérvár FC 2+ goals
26%
Fehérvár FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)
68%
Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omonia Nicosia at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Fehérvár FC away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omonia Nicosia attack 1.83 + Fehérvár FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Fehérvár FC attack 1.17 + Omonia Nicosia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Omonia Nicosia scores more
51%
level
25%
Fehérvár FC scores more
24%

Omonia Nicosia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Omonia Nicosia vs Fehérvár FC

Omonia Nicosia beat Fehérvár FC 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 8, 2024.

The match was played at Neo GSP in Levkosía.