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Fehérvár FC vs Omonia Nicosia — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Fehérvár FC
Fehérvár FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia
8/14/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundMOL Aréna Sóstó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fehérvár FC44%
×Draw25%
Omonia Nicosia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fehérvár FC
1.52
Omonia Nicosia
1.25

Fehérvár FC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

creates per match

Fehérvár FC
1.67
Omonia Nicosia
1.32

allows per match

Fehérvár FC
1.17
Omonia Nicosia
1.37

finishing

Fehérvár FC+0.00on par
Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fehérvár FC ↓

Omonia Nicosia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Fehérvár FC or draw
69%
Fehérvár FC or Omonia Nicosia
75%
Draw or Omonia Nicosia
56%

Winning margin

Fehérvár FC wins by 2+
22%
Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fehérvár FC 1+ goals
78%
Fehérvár FC 2+ goals
45%
Fehérvár FC 3+ goals
20%
Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals
71%
Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals
36%
Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)
58%
Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fehérvár FC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Omonia Nicosia away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fehérvár FC attack 1.67 + Omonia Nicosia defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Omonia Nicosia attack 1.32 + Fehérvár FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fehérvár FC scores more
44%
level
25%
Omonia Nicosia scores more
31%

Fehérvár FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fehérvár FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Fehérvár FC 0–2 Omonia Nicosia

Omonia Nicosia beat Fehérvár FC 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 14, 2024.

The match was played at MOL Aréna Sóstó in Székesfehérvár.