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Omonia Nicosia vs AEL — 1. Division 2019

Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AEL
AEL
9/22/20251. Division1. Division · Round 4GSP Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Omonia Nicosia55%
×Draw25%
AEL20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omonia Nicosia
1.61
AEL
0.86

Omonia Nicosia creates 87% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 117 away

creates per match

Omonia Nicosia
1.79
AEL
1.03

allows per match

Omonia Nicosia
0.69
AEL
1.44

finishing

Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par
AEL+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omonia Nicosia ↓

AEL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Omonia Nicosia or draw
80%
Omonia Nicosia or AEL
75%
Draw or AEL
45%

Winning margin

Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+
29%
AEL wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals
80%
Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals
48%
Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals
22%
AEL 1+ goals
58%
AEL 2+ goals
21%
AEL 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)
73%
AEL (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omonia Nicosia at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.69 · 117 matches

AEL away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.44 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omonia Nicosia attack 1.79 + AEL defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.61

AEL attack 1.03 + Omonia Nicosia defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Omonia Nicosia scores more
55%
level
25%
AEL scores more
20%

Omonia Nicosia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Omonia Nicosia vs AEL

Omonia Nicosia beat AEL 5-0 in 1. Division on September 22, 2025.

The match was played at GSP Stadium in Nicosia.