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AEL vs Omonia Nicosia — 1. Division 2019

AEL
AEL
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia
1/9/20261. Division1. Division · Round 17Alphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

AEL35%
×Draw26%
Omonia Nicosia39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AEL
1.31
Omonia Nicosia
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 118 away

creates per match

AEL
1.53
Omonia Nicosia
1.57

allows per match

AEL
1.18
Omonia Nicosia
1.10

finishing

AEL+0.00on par
Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEL ↓

Omonia Nicosia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

AEL or draw
61%
AEL or Omonia Nicosia
74%
Draw or Omonia Nicosia
65%

Winning margin

AEL wins by 2+
16%
Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

AEL 1+ goals
73%
AEL 2+ goals
38%
AEL 3+ goals
14%
Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals
75%
Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals
40%
Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

AEL (draw refunded)
48%
Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEL at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

Omonia Nicosia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEL attack 1.53 + Omonia Nicosia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.31

Omonia Nicosia attack 1.57 + AEL defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AEL scores more
35%
level
26%
Omonia Nicosia scores more
39%

Omonia Nicosia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AEL vs Omonia Nicosia

Omonia Nicosia beat AEL 2-0 in 1. Division on January 9, 2026.

The match was played at Alphamega Stadium in Kolossi.