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Omonia 29is Maiou vs Anorthosis — 1. Division 2019

Omonia 29is Maiou
Omonia 29is Maiou
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Anorthosis
Anorthosis
3/8/20251. Division1. Division · Round 26Stadio Katokopia-Epistrofi-Glafkos Kliridis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Omonia 29is Maiou23%
×Draw25%
Anorthosis51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omonia 29is Maiou
0.98
Anorthosis
1.58

Anorthosis creates 61% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 115 away

creates per match

Omonia 29is Maiou
0.81
Anorthosis
1.17

allows per match

Omonia 29is Maiou
2.00
Anorthosis
1.16

finishing

Omonia 29is Maiou+0.00on par
Anorthosis+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omonia 29is Maiou ↓

Anorthosis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Omonia 29is Maiou or draw
49%
Omonia 29is Maiou or Anorthosis
75%
Draw or Anorthosis
77%

Winning margin

Omonia 29is Maiou wins by 2+
8%
Anorthosis wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Omonia 29is Maiou 1+ goals
62%
Omonia 29is Maiou 2+ goals
26%
Omonia 29is Maiou 3+ goals
8%
Anorthosis 1+ goals
79%
Anorthosis 2+ goals
47%
Anorthosis 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Omonia 29is Maiou (draw refunded)
31%
Anorthosis (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omonia 29is Maiou at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

Anorthosis away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.16 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omonia 29is Maiou attack 0.81 + Anorthosis defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.98

Anorthosis attack 1.17 + Omonia 29is Maiou defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Omonia 29is Maiou scores more
23%
level
25%
Anorthosis scores more
51%

Anorthosis at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Anorthosis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Omonia 29is Maiou vs Anorthosis

Omonia 29is Maiou and Anorthosis drew 0-0 in 1. Division on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Katokopia-Epistrofi-Glafkos Kliridis in Peristerona.