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Anorthosis vs Omonia 29is Maiou — 1. Division 2019

Anorthosis
Anorthosis
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Omonia 29is Maiou
Omonia 29is Maiou
3/14/20251. Division1. Division · Relegation Round - 1Stadio Antonis Papadopoulos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Anorthosis59%
×Draw23%
Omonia 29is Maiou18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anorthosis
1.76
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.85

Anorthosis creates 107% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 17 away

creates per match

Anorthosis
1.58
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.59

allows per match

Anorthosis
1.12
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.94

finishing

Anorthosis+0.00on par
Omonia 29is Maiou+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anorthosis ↓

Omonia 29is Maiou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Anorthosis or draw
82%
Anorthosis or Omonia 29is Maiou
77%
Draw or Omonia 29is Maiou
41%

Winning margin

Anorthosis wins by 2+
33%
Omonia 29is Maiou wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Anorthosis 1+ goals
83%
Anorthosis 2+ goals
52%
Anorthosis 3+ goals
26%
Omonia 29is Maiou 1+ goals
57%
Omonia 29is Maiou 2+ goals
21%
Omonia 29is Maiou 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Anorthosis (draw refunded)
77%
Omonia 29is Maiou (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anorthosis at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.12 · 118 matches

Omonia 29is Maiou away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anorthosis attack 1.58 + Omonia 29is Maiou defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.76

Omonia 29is Maiou attack 0.59 + Anorthosis defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Anorthosis scores more
59%
level
23%
Omonia 29is Maiou scores more
18%

Anorthosis at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Anorthosis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Anorthosis 4–2 Omonia 29is Maiou

Anorthosis beat Omonia 29is Maiou 4-2 in 1. Division on March 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Antonis Papadopoulos in Larnaca.