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Omladinac Zablaće vs Borac Cacak — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Omladinac Zablaće
Omladinac Zablaće
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Borac Cacak
Borac Cacak
8/26/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 2Stadion FK Omladinac Zablaće

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Omladinac Zablaće33%
×Draw27%
Borac Cacak40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omladinac Zablaće
1.16
Borac Cacak
1.32

Borac Cacak creates 14% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 54 away

creates per match

Omladinac Zablaće
1.34
Borac Cacak
1.78

allows per match

Omladinac Zablaće
0.86
Borac Cacak
0.98

finishing

Omladinac Zablaće+0.00on par
Borac Cacak+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omladinac Zablaće ↓

Borac Cacak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Omladinac Zablaće or draw
60%
Omladinac Zablaće or Borac Cacak
73%
Draw or Borac Cacak
67%

Winning margin

Omladinac Zablaće wins by 2+
13%
Borac Cacak wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Omladinac Zablaće 1+ goals
69%
Omladinac Zablaće 2+ goals
32%
Omladinac Zablaće 3+ goals
11%
Borac Cacak 1+ goals
73%
Borac Cacak 2+ goals
38%
Borac Cacak 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Omladinac Zablaće (draw refunded)
45%
Borac Cacak (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omladinac Zablaće at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.86 · 44 matches

Borac Cacak away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omladinac Zablaće attack 1.34 + Borac Cacak defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.16

Borac Cacak attack 1.78 + Omladinac Zablaće defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Omladinac Zablaće scores more
33%
level
27%
Borac Cacak scores more
40%

Borac Cacak at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Borac Cacak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Omladinac Zablaće vs Borac Cacak

Borac Cacak beat Omladinac Zablaće 1-0 in Srpska Liga - West on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Omladinac Zablaće in Zablaće.