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Borac Cacak vs Omladinac Zablaće — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Borac Cacak
Borac Cacak
FT
2 – 0
Omladinac Zablaće
Omladinac Zablaće
3/16/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 17Stadion Borca kraj Morave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Borac Cacak67%
×Draw20%
Omladinac Zablaće13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Cacak
2.05
Omladinac Zablaće
0.77

Borac Cacak creates 166% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 44 away

creates per match

Borac Cacak
2.49
Omladinac Zablaće
0.95

allows per match

Borac Cacak
0.60
Omladinac Zablaće
1.61

finishing

Borac Cacak+0.00on par
Omladinac Zablaće+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Cacak ↓

Omladinac Zablaće →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Borac Cacak or draw
87%
Borac Cacak or Omladinac Zablaće
80%
Draw or Omladinac Zablaće
33%

Winning margin

Borac Cacak wins by 2+
42%
Omladinac Zablaće wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Borac Cacak 1+ goals
87%
Borac Cacak 2+ goals
61%
Borac Cacak 3+ goals
33%
Omladinac Zablaće 1+ goals
54%
Omladinac Zablaće 2+ goals
18%
Omladinac Zablaće 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Borac Cacak (draw refunded)
84%
Omladinac Zablaće (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Cacak at home — creates 2.49, concedes 0.60 · 55 matches

Omladinac Zablaće away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Cacak attack 2.49 + Omladinac Zablaće defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.05

Omladinac Zablaće attack 0.95 + Borac Cacak defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Borac Cacak scores more
67%
level
20%
Omladinac Zablaće scores more
13%

Borac Cacak at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Borac Cacak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borac Cacak vs Omladinac Zablaće

Borac Cacak beat Omladinac Zablaće 2-0 in Srpska Liga - West on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Borca kraj Morave in Čačak.