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Omladinac NB vs Vojvodina 1928 — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Omladinac NB
Omladinac NB
FT
5 – 0
Vojvodina 1928
Vojvodina 1928
11/7/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 16Stadion FK Omladinac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Omladinac NB60%
×Draw22%
Vojvodina 192818%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omladinac NB
1.90
Vojvodina 1928
0.93

Omladinac NB creates 104% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 43 away

creates per match

Omladinac NB
1.61
Vojvodina 1928
0.72

allows per match

Omladinac NB
1.15
Vojvodina 1928
2.19

finishing

Omladinac NB+0.00on par
Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omladinac NB ↓

Vojvodina 1928 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Omladinac NB or draw
82%
Omladinac NB or Vojvodina 1928
78%
Draw or Vojvodina 1928
40%

Winning margin

Omladinac NB wins by 2+
35%
Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Omladinac NB 1+ goals
85%
Omladinac NB 2+ goals
56%
Omladinac NB 3+ goals
29%
Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals
61%
Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals
24%
Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Omladinac NB (draw refunded)
77%
Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omladinac NB at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 101 matches

Vojvodina 1928 away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omladinac NB attack 1.61 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.90

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.72 + Omladinac NB defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Omladinac NB scores more
60%
level
22%
Vojvodina 1928 scores more
18%

Omladinac NB at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Omladinac NB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Omladinac NB 5–0 Vojvodina 1928

Omladinac NB beat Vojvodina 1928 5-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Omladinac in Novi Banovci.