Omladinac NB 1–1 Mladost Novi Sad: Result & Stats

Omladinac NB

FT

1 – 1

Mladost Novi Sad

4/14/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 28Stadion FK Podunavac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Omladinac NB32%

×Draw25%

Mladost Novi Sad43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Omladinac NBExpected goals in this matchMladost Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.50

Omladinac NB

1.25

Mladost Novi Sad

1.50

Mladost Novi Sad creates 20% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 19 away

1.61

creates per match

1.84

1.15

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Omladinac NB

1.61

Mladost Novi Sad

1.84

allows per match

Omladinac NB

1.15

Mladost Novi Sad

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omladinac NB+0.00on par

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omladinac NB ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Omladinac NB or draw

57%

Omladinac NB or Mladost Novi Sad

75%

Draw or Mladost Novi Sad

68%

Winning margin

Omladinac NB wins by 2+

13%

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Omladinac NB 1+ goals

71%

Omladinac NB 2+ goals

36%

Omladinac NB 3+ goals

13%

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

78%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

44%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Omladinac NB (draw refunded)

42%

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omladinac NB at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 101 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 1.84, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omladinac NB attack 1.61 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.84 + Omladinac NB defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Omladinac NB scores more

32%

level

25%

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

43%

Mladost Novi Sad at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff