Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mladost Novi Sad vs Omladinac NB — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
FT
1 – 0
Omladinac NB
Omladinac NB
9/26/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 9Stadion FK Mladost Novi Sad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad68%
×Draw19%
Omladinac NB13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Novi Sad
2.18
Omladinac NB
0.83

Mladost Novi Sad creates 163% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 103 away

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad
3.26
Omladinac NB
1.09

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad
0.58
Omladinac NB
1.10

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par
Omladinac NB+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

Omladinac NB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw
87%
Mladost Novi Sad or Omladinac NB
81%
Draw or Omladinac NB
32%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
44%
Omladinac NB wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
89%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
64%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
37%
Omladinac NB 1+ goals
56%
Omladinac NB 2+ goals
20%
Omladinac NB 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
84%
Omladinac NB (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 3.26, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Omladinac NB away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 3.26 + Omladinac NB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 2.18

Omladinac NB attack 1.09 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more
68%
level
19%
Omladinac NB scores more
13%

Mladost Novi Sad at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Mladost Novi Sad 1–0 Omladinac NB

Mladost Novi Sad beat Omladinac NB 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Mladost Novi Sad in Novi Sad.