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Omladinac NB vs Bratstvo Prigrevica — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Omladinac NB
Omladinac NB
FT
2 – 1
Bratstvo Prigrevica
Bratstvo Prigrevica
10/3/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 10Stadion FK Omladinac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Omladinac NB42%
×Draw27%
Bratstvo Prigrevica30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omladinac NB
1.35
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.10

Omladinac NB creates 23% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 42 away

creates per match

Omladinac NB
1.61
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.05

allows per match

Omladinac NB
1.15
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.10

finishing

Omladinac NB+0.00on par
Bratstvo Prigrevica+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omladinac NB ↓

Bratstvo Prigrevica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Omladinac NB or draw
70%
Omladinac NB or Bratstvo Prigrevica
73%
Draw or Bratstvo Prigrevica
58%

Winning margin

Omladinac NB wins by 2+
20%
Bratstvo Prigrevica wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Omladinac NB 1+ goals
74%
Omladinac NB 2+ goals
39%
Omladinac NB 3+ goals
15%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 1+ goals
67%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 2+ goals
30%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Omladinac NB (draw refunded)
58%
Bratstvo Prigrevica (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omladinac NB at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 101 matches

Bratstvo Prigrevica away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.10 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omladinac NB attack 1.61 + Bratstvo Prigrevica defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bratstvo Prigrevica attack 1.05 + Omladinac NB defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Omladinac NB scores more
42%
level
27%
Bratstvo Prigrevica scores more
30%

Omladinac NB at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Omladinac NB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Omladinac NB 2–1 Bratstvo Prigrevica

Omladinac NB beat Bratstvo Prigrevica 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Omladinac in Novi Banovci.