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Bratstvo Prigrevica vs Omladinac NB — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Bratstvo Prigrevica
Bratstvo Prigrevica
FT
1 – 0
Omladinac NB
Omladinac NB
4/17/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 29Sportski centar Suvača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Bratstvo Prigrevica45%
×Draw27%
Omladinac NB28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.41
Omladinac NB
1.06

Bratstvo Prigrevica creates 33% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 103 away

creates per match

Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.72
Omladinac NB
1.09

allows per match

Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.02
Omladinac NB
1.10

finishing

Bratstvo Prigrevica+0.00on par
Omladinac NB+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bratstvo Prigrevica ↓

Omladinac NB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bratstvo Prigrevica or draw
72%
Bratstvo Prigrevica or Omladinac NB
73%
Draw or Omladinac NB
55%

Winning margin

Bratstvo Prigrevica wins by 2+
22%
Omladinac NB wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bratstvo Prigrevica 1+ goals
76%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 2+ goals
41%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 3+ goals
17%
Omladinac NB 1+ goals
65%
Omladinac NB 2+ goals
29%
Omladinac NB 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bratstvo Prigrevica (draw refunded)
61%
Omladinac NB (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bratstvo Prigrevica at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.02 · 43 matches

Omladinac NB away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bratstvo Prigrevica attack 1.72 + Omladinac NB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.41

Omladinac NB attack 1.09 + Bratstvo Prigrevica defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bratstvo Prigrevica scores more
45%
level
27%
Omladinac NB scores more
28%

Bratstvo Prigrevica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bratstvo Prigrevica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Bratstvo Prigrevica 1–0 Omladinac NB

Bratstvo Prigrevica beat Omladinac NB 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Sportski centar Suvača in Pećinci.