Omladinac NB 0–0 Borac Sakule: Result & Stats

Omladinac NB

FT

0 – 0

Borac Sakule

9/12/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 6Stadion FK Podunavac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Omladinac NB45%

×Draw25%

Borac Sakule30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Omladinac NBExpected goals in this matchBorac Sakule

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.27

Omladinac NB

1.60

Borac Sakule

1.27

Omladinac NB creates 26% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 42 away

1.61

creates per match

1.40

1.15

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Omladinac NB

1.61

Borac Sakule

1.40

allows per match

Omladinac NB

1.15

Borac Sakule

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omladinac NB+0.00on par

Borac Sakule+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omladinac NB ↓

Borac Sakule →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Omladinac NB or draw

70%

Omladinac NB or Borac Sakule

75%

Draw or Borac Sakule

55%

Winning margin

Omladinac NB wins by 2+

23%

Borac Sakule wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Omladinac NB 1+ goals

80%

Omladinac NB 2+ goals

47%

Omladinac NB 3+ goals

22%

Borac Sakule 1+ goals

72%

Borac Sakule 2+ goals

36%

Borac Sakule 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Omladinac NB (draw refunded)

60%

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omladinac NB at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 101 matches

Borac Sakule away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omladinac NB attack 1.61 + Borac Sakule defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Borac Sakule attack 1.40 + Omladinac NB defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Omladinac NB scores more

45%

level

25%

Borac Sakule scores more

30%

Omladinac NB at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Omladinac NB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff