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Borac Sakule vs Omladinac NB — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Borac Sakule
Borac Sakule
FT
1 – 3
Omladinac NB
Omladinac NB
10/3/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 8Stadion Sveti Nikola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Borac Sakule45%
×Draw26%
Omladinac NB29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Sakule
1.48
Omladinac NB
1.13

Borac Sakule creates 31% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 103 away

creates per match

Borac Sakule
1.86
Omladinac NB
1.09

allows per match

Borac Sakule
1.16
Omladinac NB
1.10

finishing

Borac Sakule+0.00on par
Omladinac NB+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Sakule ↓

Omladinac NB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Borac Sakule or draw
71%
Borac Sakule or Omladinac NB
74%
Draw or Omladinac NB
55%

Winning margin

Borac Sakule wins by 2+
22%
Omladinac NB wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Borac Sakule 1+ goals
77%
Borac Sakule 2+ goals
43%
Borac Sakule 3+ goals
19%
Omladinac NB 1+ goals
68%
Omladinac NB 2+ goals
31%
Omladinac NB 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)
61%
Omladinac NB (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Sakule at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

Omladinac NB away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Sakule attack 1.86 + Omladinac NB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.48

Omladinac NB attack 1.09 + Borac Sakule defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Borac Sakule scores more
45%
level
26%
Omladinac NB scores more
29%

Borac Sakule at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Borac Sakule will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Borac Sakule 1–3 Omladinac NB

Omladinac NB beat Borac Sakule 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Nikola in Sakule.