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Omiš vs Neretva Metković — Third NL - Jug 2019

Omiš
Omiš
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Neretva Metković
Neretva Metković
11/30/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 15Stadion Anđelko Marušić - Ferata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Omiš48%
×Draw24%
Neretva Metković29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omiš
1.71
Neretva Metković
1.27

Omiš creates 35% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 102 away

creates per match

Omiš
1.64
Neretva Metković
1.44

allows per match

Omiš
1.11
Neretva Metković
1.77

finishing

Omiš+0.00on par
Neretva Metković+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omiš ↓

Neretva Metković →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Omiš or draw
71%
Omiš or Neretva Metković
76%
Draw or Neretva Metković
52%

Winning margin

Omiš wins by 2+
25%
Neretva Metković wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Omiš 1+ goals
82%
Omiš 2+ goals
51%
Omiš 3+ goals
24%
Neretva Metković 1+ goals
72%
Neretva Metković 2+ goals
36%
Neretva Metković 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Omiš (draw refunded)
63%
Neretva Metković (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omiš at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

Neretva Metković away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.77 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omiš attack 1.64 + Neretva Metković defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.71

Neretva Metković attack 1.44 + Omiš defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Omiš scores more
48%
level
24%
Neretva Metković scores more
29%

Omiš at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Omiš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Omiš 0–5 Neretva Metković

Neretva Metković beat Omiš 5-0 in Third NL - Jug on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Anđelko Marušić - Ferata in Omiš.