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Neretva Metković vs Omiš — Third NL - Jug 2019

Neretva Metković
Neretva Metković
FT
2 – 2
Omiš
Omiš
3/9/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 18Igralište Iza Vage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Neretva Metković62%
×Draw22%
Omiš16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neretva Metković
1.90
Omiš
0.86

Neretva Metković creates 121% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 45 away

creates per match

Neretva Metković
1.80
Omiš
0.67

allows per match

Neretva Metković
1.05
Omiš
2.00

finishing

Neretva Metković+0.00on par
Omiš+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neretva Metković ↓

Omiš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Neretva Metković or draw
84%
Neretva Metković or Omiš
78%
Draw or Omiš
38%

Winning margin

Neretva Metković wins by 2+
37%
Omiš wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Neretva Metković 1+ goals
85%
Neretva Metković 2+ goals
56%
Neretva Metković 3+ goals
29%
Omiš 1+ goals
58%
Omiš 2+ goals
21%
Omiš 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Neretva Metković (draw refunded)
79%
Omiš (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neretva Metković at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Omiš away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neretva Metković attack 1.80 + Omiš defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Omiš attack 0.67 + Neretva Metković defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Neretva Metković scores more
62%
level
22%
Omiš scores more
16%

Neretva Metković at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Neretva Metković will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neretva Metković vs Omiš

Neretva Metković and Omiš drew 2-2 in Third NL - Jug on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Igralište Iza Vage in Metković.