Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Omiš vs Kamen Ivanbegovina — Third NL - Jug 2019

Omiš
Omiš
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kamen Ivanbegovina
Kamen Ivanbegovina
9/10/2025Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 3Stadion Anđelko Marušić - Ferata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Omiš65%
×Draw20%
Kamen Ivanbegovina16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omiš
2.17
Kamen Ivanbegovina
0.96

Omiš creates 126% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 102 away

creates per match

Omiš
1.64
Kamen Ivanbegovina
0.80

allows per match

Omiš
1.11
Kamen Ivanbegovina
2.71

finishing

Omiš+0.00on par
Kamen Ivanbegovina+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omiš ↓

Kamen Ivanbegovina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Omiš or draw
84%
Omiš or Kamen Ivanbegovina
80%
Draw or Kamen Ivanbegovina
35%

Winning margin

Omiš wins by 2+
41%
Kamen Ivanbegovina wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Omiš 1+ goals
89%
Omiš 2+ goals
64%
Omiš 3+ goals
36%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 1+ goals
62%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 2+ goals
25%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Omiš (draw refunded)
81%
Kamen Ivanbegovina (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omiš at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

Kamen Ivanbegovina away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.71 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omiš attack 1.64 + Kamen Ivanbegovina defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.17

Kamen Ivanbegovina attack 0.80 + Omiš defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Omiš scores more
65%
level
20%
Kamen Ivanbegovina scores more
16%

Omiš at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Omiš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Omiš vs Kamen Ivanbegovina

Omiš and Kamen Ivanbegovina drew 0-0 in Third NL - Jug on September 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Anđelko Marušić - Ferata in Omiš.