Kamen Ivanbegovina 0–1 Omiš: Result & Stats

Kamen Ivanbegovina

FT

0 – 1

Omiš

10/2/2024

Third NL - Jug · South - 6Igralište NK Kamen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kamen Ivanbegovina58%

×Draw23%

Omiš20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kamen IvanbegovinaExpected goals in this matchOmiš

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.98

Kamen Ivanbegovina

1.86

Omiš

0.98

Kamen Ivanbegovina creates 90% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 45 away

1.72

creates per match

0.67

1.28

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Kamen Ivanbegovina

1.72

Omiš

0.67

allows per match

Kamen Ivanbegovina

1.28

Omiš

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kamen Ivanbegovina+0.00on par

Omiš+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamen Ivanbegovina ↓

Omiš →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kamen Ivanbegovina or draw

80%

Kamen Ivanbegovina or Omiš

77%

Draw or Omiš

42%

Winning margin

Kamen Ivanbegovina wins by 2+

34%

Omiš wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kamen Ivanbegovina 1+ goals

84%

Kamen Ivanbegovina 2+ goals

55%

Kamen Ivanbegovina 3+ goals

28%

Omiš 1+ goals

62%

Omiš 2+ goals

26%

Omiš 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kamen Ivanbegovina (draw refunded)

75%

Omiš (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamen Ivanbegovina at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.28 · 102 matches

Omiš away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamen Ivanbegovina attack 1.72 + Omiš defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Omiš attack 0.67 + Kamen Ivanbegovina defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kamen Ivanbegovina scores more

58%

level

23%

Omiš scores more

20%

Kamen Ivanbegovina at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kamen Ivanbegovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff