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Oman vs Lebanon — Friendlies 2026

Oman
Oman
FT
1 – 0
Lebanon
Lebanon
M. Al Ghassani 55'
9/10/2019FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Sultan Qaboos Sport Complex (Masqaṭ (Muscat))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Oman47%
×Draw36%
Lebanon17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oman
0.96
Lebanon
0.46

Oman creates 109% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

Oman
1.05
Lebanon
0.45

allows per match

Oman
0.47
Lebanon
0.86

finishing

Oman+0.00on par
Lebanon+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Under
  • Under83
  • Over17

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oman ↓

Lebanon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–024%
0–111%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–111%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (24%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
76%24%1.5
42%58%2.5
17%83%3.5
6%94%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Oman or draw
83%
Oman or Lebanon
64%
Draw or Lebanon
53%

Winning margin

Oman wins by 2+
18%
Lebanon wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Oman 1+ goals
62%
Oman 2+ goals
25%
Oman 3+ goals
7%
Lebanon 1+ goals
37%
Lebanon 2+ goals
8%
Lebanon 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Oman (draw refunded)
73%
Lebanon (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oman at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Lebanon away — creates 0.45, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oman attack 1.05 + Lebanon defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Lebanon attack 0.45 + Oman defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Oman scores more
47%
level
36%
Lebanon scores more
17%

Oman at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Oman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
M. Al Ghassani
68'
80'
89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oman 1 – 0 Lebanon

Oman beat Lebanon 1-0 in Friendlies on September 10, 2019.

Goals: M. Al Ghassani (55').

The match was played at Sultan Qaboos Sport Complex (Masqaṭ (Muscat)).