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Lebanon vs Oman — Friendlies 2026

Lebanon
Lebanon
FT
0 – 0
Oman
Oman
9/9/2018FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3King Abdullah International Stadium (ʿAmmān (Amman))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lebanon33%
×Draw28%
Oman39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lebanon
1.12
Oman
1.25

Oman creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Lebanon
1.57
Oman
1.50

allows per match

Lebanon
1.00
Oman
0.67

finishing

Lebanon+0.00on par
Oman+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebanon ↓

Oman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lebanon or draw
61%
Lebanon or Oman
72%
Draw or Oman
67%

Winning margin

Lebanon wins by 2+
13%
Oman wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lebanon 1+ goals
67%
Lebanon 2+ goals
31%
Lebanon 3+ goals
10%
Oman 1+ goals
71%
Oman 2+ goals
36%
Oman 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lebanon (draw refunded)
46%
Oman (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lebanon at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Oman away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lebanon attack 1.57 + Oman defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.12

Oman attack 1.50 + Lebanon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lebanon scores more
33%
level
28%
Oman scores more
39%

Oman at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Oman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lebanon 0 – 0 Oman

Lebanon and Oman drew 0-0 in Friendlies on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at King Abdullah International Stadium (ʿAmmān (Amman)).