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Oman Club vs Dhofar — Professional League 2019

Oman Club
Oman Club
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dhofar
Dhofar
8/17/2025Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 1Al-Seeb Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Oman Club33%
×Draw31%
Dhofar36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oman Club
0.97
Dhofar
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 69 away

creates per match

Oman Club
1.03
Dhofar
1.07

allows per match

Oman Club
0.97
Dhofar
0.91

finishing

Oman Club+0.00on par
Dhofar+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oman Club ↓

Dhofar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Oman Club or draw
64%
Oman Club or Dhofar
69%
Draw or Dhofar
67%

Winning margin

Oman Club wins by 2+
12%
Dhofar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Oman Club 1+ goals
62%
Oman Club 2+ goals
25%
Oman Club 3+ goals
7%
Dhofar 1+ goals
64%
Dhofar 2+ goals
27%
Dhofar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Oman Club (draw refunded)
48%
Dhofar (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oman Club at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.97 · 79 matches

Dhofar away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oman Club attack 1.03 + Dhofar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.97

Dhofar attack 1.07 + Oman Club defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Oman Club scores more
33%
level
31%
Dhofar scores more
36%

Dhofar at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dhofar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Professional League: Oman Club 2–1 Dhofar

Oman Club beat Dhofar 2-1 in Professional League on August 17, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Seeb Stadium in Seeb.