Dhofar 1–0 Oman Club: Result & Stats

Dhofar

FT

1 – 0

Oman Club

11/5/2023

Professional League · Round 9Al-Saada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Dhofar46%

×Draw28%

Oman Club26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DhofarExpected goals in this matchOman Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.93

Dhofar

1.35

Oman Club

0.93

Dhofar creates 45% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 79 away

1.58

creates per match

1.04

0.82

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Dhofar

1.58

Oman Club

1.04

allows per match

Dhofar

0.82

Oman Club

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dhofar+0.00on par

Oman Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dhofar ↓

Oman Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dhofar or draw

74%

Dhofar or Oman Club

72%

Draw or Oman Club

54%

Winning margin

Dhofar wins by 2+

22%

Oman Club wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dhofar 1+ goals

74%

Dhofar 2+ goals

39%

Dhofar 3+ goals

15%

Oman Club 1+ goals

61%

Oman Club 2+ goals

24%

Oman Club 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dhofar (draw refunded)

64%

Oman Club (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dhofar at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.82 · 67 matches

Oman Club away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dhofar attack 1.58 + Oman Club defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.35

Oman Club attack 1.04 + Dhofar defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dhofar scores more

46%

level

28%

Oman Club scores more

26%

Dhofar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dhofar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff