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Olympique Safi vs Rapide Oued ZEM — Botola Pro 2025

Olympique Safi
Olympique Safi
FT
1 – 0
Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
9/22/2018Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 3Stade El Massira (Safi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Olympique Safi43%
×Draw30%
Rapide Oued ZEM26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Safi
1.16
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.83

Olympique Safi creates 40% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 60 away

creates per match

Olympique Safi
1.08
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.72

allows per match

Olympique Safi
0.95
Rapide Oued ZEM
1.23

finishing

Olympique Safi+0.00on par
Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Safi ↓

Rapide Oued ZEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Olympique Safi or draw
74%
Olympique Safi or Rapide Oued ZEM
70%
Draw or Rapide Oued ZEM
57%

Winning margin

Olympique Safi wins by 2+
19%
Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Olympique Safi 1+ goals
69%
Olympique Safi 2+ goals
32%
Olympique Safi 3+ goals
11%
Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
56%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
20%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Olympique Safi (draw refunded)
62%
Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Safi at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.95 · 120 matches

Rapide Oued ZEM away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.23 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Safi attack 1.08 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 0.72 + Olympique Safi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olympique Safi scores more
43%
level
30%
Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
26%

Olympique Safi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olympique Safi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Safi vs Rapide Oued ZEM

Olympique Safi beat Rapide Oued ZEM 1-0 in Botola Pro on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Stade El Massira (Safi).