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Olympique Safi vs Moghreb Tetouan — Botola Pro 2025

Olympique Safi
Olympique Safi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
12/29/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 16Stade El Massira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Olympique Safi43%
×Draw29%
Moghreb Tetouan28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Safi
1.22
Moghreb Tetouan
0.92

Olympique Safi creates 33% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 91 away

creates per match

Olympique Safi
1.08
Moghreb Tetouan
0.89

allows per match

Olympique Safi
0.95
Moghreb Tetouan
1.35

finishing

Olympique Safi+0.00on par
Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Safi ↓

Moghreb Tetouan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Olympique Safi or draw
72%
Olympique Safi or Moghreb Tetouan
71%
Draw or Moghreb Tetouan
57%

Winning margin

Olympique Safi wins by 2+
19%
Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Olympique Safi 1+ goals
70%
Olympique Safi 2+ goals
34%
Olympique Safi 3+ goals
12%
Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
60%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
23%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Olympique Safi (draw refunded)
61%
Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Safi at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.95 · 120 matches

Moghreb Tetouan away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Safi attack 1.08 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

Moghreb Tetouan attack 0.89 + Olympique Safi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olympique Safi scores more
43%
level
29%
Moghreb Tetouan scores more
28%

Olympique Safi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olympique Safi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Olympique Safi 1–0 Moghreb Tetouan

Olympique Safi beat Moghreb Tetouan 1-0 in Botola Pro on December 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stade El Massira in Safi.