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Moghreb Tetouan vs Olympique Safi — Botola Pro 2025

Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Olympique Safi
Olympique Safi
9/2/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 2Stade Saniat Rmel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Moghreb Tetouan41%
×Draw29%
Olympique Safi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moghreb Tetouan
1.18
Olympique Safi
0.97

Moghreb Tetouan creates 22% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 120 away

creates per match

Moghreb Tetouan
1.07
Olympique Safi
0.96

allows per match

Moghreb Tetouan
0.98
Olympique Safi
1.29

finishing

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par
Olympique Safi+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moghreb Tetouan ↓

Olympique Safi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Moghreb Tetouan or draw
70%
Moghreb Tetouan or Olympique Safi
71%
Draw or Olympique Safi
59%

Winning margin

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
17%
Olympique Safi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
69%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
33%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
12%
Olympique Safi 1+ goals
62%
Olympique Safi 2+ goals
25%
Olympique Safi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
58%
Olympique Safi (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moghreb Tetouan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Olympique Safi away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moghreb Tetouan attack 1.07 + Olympique Safi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Olympique Safi attack 0.96 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Moghreb Tetouan scores more
41%
level
29%
Olympique Safi scores more
30%

Moghreb Tetouan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Moghreb Tetouan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moghreb Tetouan vs Olympique Safi

Moghreb Tetouan and Olympique Safi drew 0-0 in Botola Pro on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Saniat Rmel in Tétouan.