Olympique Safi 1–0 Hassania Agadir: Result & Stats

Olympique Safi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hassania Agadir

10/1/2025

Botola Pro · Round 3Stade El Massira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Olympique Safi42%

×Draw30%

Hassania Agadir28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique SafiExpected goals in this matchHassania Agadir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.87

Olympique Safi

1.13

Hassania Agadir

0.87

Olympique Safi creates 30% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 121 away

1.08

creates per match

0.79

0.95

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Olympique Safi

1.08

Hassania Agadir

0.79

allows per match

Olympique Safi

0.95

Hassania Agadir

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Safi+0.00on par

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Safi ↓

Hassania Agadir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Olympique Safi or draw

72%

Olympique Safi or Hassania Agadir

70%

Draw or Hassania Agadir

58%

Winning margin

Olympique Safi wins by 2+

17%

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Olympique Safi 1+ goals

68%

Olympique Safi 2+ goals

31%

Olympique Safi 3+ goals

11%

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals

58%

Hassania Agadir 2+ goals

22%

Hassania Agadir 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Olympique Safi (draw refunded)

60%

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Safi at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.95 · 120 matches

Hassania Agadir away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.17 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Safi attack 1.08 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Hassania Agadir attack 0.79 + Olympique Safi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Olympique Safi scores more

42%

level

30%

Hassania Agadir scores more

28%

Olympique Safi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Olympique Safi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff