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Hassania Agadir vs Olympique Safi — Botola Pro 2025

Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadir
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Olympique Safi
Olympique Safi
5/4/2026Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 18Stade Adrar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Hassania Agadir42%
×Draw29%
Olympique Safi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hassania Agadir
1.22
Olympique Safi
0.98

Hassania Agadir creates 24% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 120 away

creates per match

Hassania Agadir
1.15
Olympique Safi
0.96

allows per match

Hassania Agadir
1.00
Olympique Safi
1.29

finishing

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par
Olympique Safi+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hassania Agadir ↓

Olympique Safi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hassania Agadir or draw
70%
Hassania Agadir or Olympique Safi
71%
Draw or Olympique Safi
58%

Winning margin

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
18%
Olympique Safi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
70%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
34%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
12%
Olympique Safi 1+ goals
62%
Olympique Safi 2+ goals
26%
Olympique Safi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
58%
Olympique Safi (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hassania Agadir at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 121 matches

Olympique Safi away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hassania Agadir attack 1.15 + Olympique Safi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Olympique Safi attack 0.96 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hassania Agadir scores more
42%
level
29%
Olympique Safi scores more
30%

Hassania Agadir at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hassania Agadir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Hassania Agadir 2–1 Olympique Safi

Hassania Agadir beat Olympique Safi 2-1 in Botola Pro on May 4, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Adrar in Agadir.