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Olympique Medea vs Témouchent — League #187 2026

Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Témouchent
Témouchent
Unknown 57'
M. Abassi 84'
H. Zaidi 45+1'
5/28/2024League #187League #187 · West - 29Stade Imam Lyes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Olympique Medea39%
×Draw28%
Témouchent33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Medea
1.26
Témouchent
1.14

Olympique Medea creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

creates per match

Olympique Medea
1.27
Témouchent
1.00

allows per match

Olympique Medea
1.27
Témouchent
1.25

finishing

Olympique Medea+0.00on par
Témouchent+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Medea ↓

Témouchent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Olympique Medea or draw
67%
Olympique Medea or Témouchent
72%
Draw or Témouchent
61%

Winning margin

Olympique Medea wins by 2+
17%
Témouchent wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Olympique Medea 1+ goals
72%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
36%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
13%
Témouchent 1+ goals
68%
Témouchent 2+ goals
32%
Témouchent 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
54%
Témouchent (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Medea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Témouchent away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Medea attack 1.27 + Témouchent defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.26

Témouchent attack 1.00 + Olympique Medea defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olympique Medea scores more
39%
level
28%
Témouchent scores more
33%

Olympique Medea at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olympique Medea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
H. Zaidi
57'
84'
M. Abassi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Medea vs Témouchent

Témouchent beat Olympique Medea 2-1 in League #187 on May 28, 2024.

Goals: H. Zaidi (45+1'), ? (57'), M. Abassi (84').

The match was played at Stade Imam Lyes in Médéa.