Olympique Medea 4–0 Témouchent: Result & Stats

Olympique Medea

FT

4 – 0

Témouchent

2/1/2013

League #187 · Round 19Stade Imam Lyes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Olympique Medea38%

×Draw29%

Témouchent33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique MedeaExpected goals in this matchTémouchent

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.04

Olympique Medea

1.13

Témouchent

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.07

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Olympique Medea

1.00

Témouchent

1.00

allows per match

Olympique Medea

1.07

Témouchent

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Medea+0.00on par

Témouchent+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Medea ↓

Témouchent →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Olympique Medea or draw

67%

Olympique Medea or Témouchent

71%

Draw or Témouchent

62%

Winning margin

Olympique Medea wins by 2+

15%

Témouchent wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Olympique Medea 1+ goals

68%

Olympique Medea 2+ goals

31%

Olympique Medea 3+ goals

11%

Témouchent 1+ goals

65%

Témouchent 2+ goals

28%

Témouchent 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Olympique Medea (draw refunded)

53%

Témouchent (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Medea at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.07 · 29 matches

Témouchent away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Medea attack 1.00 + Témouchent defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Témouchent attack 1.00 + Olympique Medea defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Olympique Medea scores more

38%

level

29%

Témouchent scores more

33%

Olympique Medea at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Olympique Medea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff