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Olympique Medea vs Hussein Dey — League #187 2026

Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hussein Dey
Hussein Dey
10/13/2023League #187League #187 · West - 3Stade Imam Lyes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Olympique Medea33%
×Draw27%
Hussein Dey40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Medea
1.14
Hussein Dey
1.29

Hussein Dey creates 13% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 4 away

creates per match

Olympique Medea
1.03
Hussein Dey
1.50

allows per match

Olympique Medea
1.07
Hussein Dey
1.25

finishing

Olympique Medea+0.00on par
Hussein Dey+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Medea ↓

Hussein Dey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Olympique Medea or draw
60%
Olympique Medea or Hussein Dey
73%
Draw or Hussein Dey
67%

Winning margin

Olympique Medea wins by 2+
13%
Hussein Dey wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Olympique Medea 1+ goals
68%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
32%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
11%
Hussein Dey 1+ goals
72%
Hussein Dey 2+ goals
37%
Hussein Dey 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
45%
Hussein Dey (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Medea at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Hussein Dey away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Medea attack 1.03 + Hussein Dey defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Hussein Dey attack 1.50 + Olympique Medea defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olympique Medea scores more
33%
level
27%
Hussein Dey scores more
40%

Hussein Dey at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hussein Dey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #187: Olympique Medea 1–1 Hussein Dey

Olympique Medea and Hussein Dey drew 1-1 in League #187 on October 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Imam Lyes in Médéa.