Olympique Medea 2–1 Bordj BOU Arreridj

Olympique Medea

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bordj BOU Arreridj

Z. Kemoukh 79'

M. Baâli 34'

I. Guessas 58'

3/21/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade Imam Lyes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Olympique Medea51%

×Draw28%

Bordj BOU Arreridj21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique MedeaExpected goals in this matchBordj BOU Arreridj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.79

Olympique Medea

1.38

Bordj BOU Arreridj

0.79

Olympique Medea creates 75% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 45 away

1.14

creates per match

0.53

1.04

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Olympique Medea

1.14

Bordj BOU Arreridj

0.53

allows per match

Olympique Medea

1.04

Bordj BOU Arreridj

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Medea+0.00on par

Bordj BOU Arreridj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Medea ↓

Bordj BOU Arreridj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Olympique Medea or draw

79%

Olympique Medea or Bordj BOU Arreridj

72%

Draw or Bordj BOU Arreridj

49%

Winning margin

Olympique Medea wins by 2+

25%

Bordj BOU Arreridj wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Olympique Medea 1+ goals

75%

Olympique Medea 2+ goals

40%

Olympique Medea 3+ goals

16%

Bordj BOU Arreridj 1+ goals

55%

Bordj BOU Arreridj 2+ goals

19%

Bordj BOU Arreridj 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Olympique Medea (draw refunded)

70%

Bordj BOU Arreridj (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Medea at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Bordj BOU Arreridj away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.62 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Medea attack 1.14 + Bordj BOU Arreridj defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bordj BOU Arreridj attack 0.53 + Olympique Medea defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Olympique Medea scores more

51%

level

28%

Bordj BOU Arreridj scores more

21%

Olympique Medea at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Olympique Medea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

46'

57'

58'

63'

B. Dadache← T. Elghomari

63'

A. Ladjabi← M. Benahmed

77'

I. Benallal← A. Ammachi

77'

L. Saïdi← T. Zeghdane

79'

Z. Kemoukh

90+3'

M. Messaoudene← H. Khalfallah

Olympique

Bordj

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: T. Rouabah

63'▲B. Dadache←▼T. Elghomari

63'▲A. Ladjabi←▼M. Benahmed

77'▲I. Benallal←▼A. Ammachi

90+3'▲M. Messaoudene←▼H. Khalfallah

Olympique Medea substitutes

DadacheLadjabiBenallalMessaoudene

Manager: M. Guemache

46'▲A. Rahba←▼H. Zegnoun

57'▲R. Adala←▼A. Gagaâ

77'▲L. Saïdi←▼T. Zeghdane

Bordj BOU Arreridj substitutes

RahbaAdalaSaïdi