Bordj BOU Arreridj 0–1 Olympique Medea

Bordj BOU Arreridj

FT

0 – 1

Olympique Medea

1/28/2016

League #187 · Round 18Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bordj BOU Arreridj67%

×Draw21%

Olympique Medea12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bordj BOU ArreridjExpected goals in this matchOlympique Medea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.61

Bordj BOU Arreridj

1.85

Olympique Medea

0.61

Bordj BOU Arreridj creates 203% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 34 away

2.00

creates per match

0.79

0.43

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Bordj BOU Arreridj

2.00

Olympique Medea

0.79

allows per match

Bordj BOU Arreridj

0.43

Olympique Medea

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bordj BOU Arreridj+0.00on par

Olympique Medea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordj BOU Arreridj ↓

Olympique Medea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bordj BOU Arreridj or draw

88%

Bordj BOU Arreridj or Olympique Medea

79%

Draw or Olympique Medea

33%

Winning margin

Bordj BOU Arreridj wins by 2+

40%

Olympique Medea wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Bordj BOU Arreridj 1+ goals

84%

Bordj BOU Arreridj 2+ goals

55%

Bordj BOU Arreridj 3+ goals

28%

Olympique Medea 1+ goals

46%

Olympique Medea 2+ goals

13%

Olympique Medea 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Bordj BOU Arreridj (draw refunded)

85%

Olympique Medea (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordj BOU Arreridj at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Olympique Medea away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordj BOU Arreridj attack 2.00 + Olympique Medea defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Olympique Medea attack 0.79 + Bordj BOU Arreridj defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Bordj BOU Arreridj scores more

67%

level

21%

Olympique Medea scores more

12%

Bordj BOU Arreridj at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Bordj BOU Arreridj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff