Olympique Medea 1–1 ASM Oran: Result & Stats

Olympique Medea

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

ASM Oran

1/12/2024

League #187 · West - 11Stade Imam Lyes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Olympique Medea27%

×Draw36%

ASM Oran38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique MedeaExpected goals in this matchASM Oran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.68

0.87

Olympique Medea

0.68

ASM Oran

0.87

ASM Oran creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 3 away

1.03

creates per match

0.67

1.07

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

Olympique Medea

1.03

ASM Oran

0.67

allows per match

Olympique Medea

1.07

ASM Oran

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Medea+0.00on par

ASM Oran+0.00on par

Total goals

Under80
Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Medea ↓

ASM Oran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–118%

0–28%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–14%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

46%54%2.5

20%80%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Olympique Medea or draw

62%

Olympique Medea or ASM Oran

64%

Draw or ASM Oran

73%

Winning margin

Olympique Medea wins by 2+

7%

ASM Oran wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Olympique Medea 1+ goals

49%

Olympique Medea 2+ goals

15%

Olympique Medea 3+ goals

3%

ASM Oran 1+ goals

58%

ASM Oran 2+ goals

22%

ASM Oran 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Olympique Medea (draw refunded)

41%

ASM Oran (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Medea at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

ASM Oran away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Medea attack 1.03 + ASM Oran defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.68

ASM Oran attack 0.67 + Olympique Medea defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Olympique Medea scores more

27%

level

36%

ASM Oran scores more

38%

ASM Oran at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "ASM Oran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff