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ASM Oran vs Olympique Medea — League #187 2026

ASM Oran
ASM Oran
FT
1 – 0
Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
11/20/2019League #187League #187 · Round 11Stade Habib Bouakeul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

ASM Oran66%
×Draw22%
Olympique Medea12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASM Oran
1.85
Olympique Medea
0.65

ASM Oran creates 185% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 34 away

creates per match

ASM Oran
2.00
Olympique Medea
0.79

allows per match

ASM Oran
0.50
Olympique Medea
1.71

finishing

ASM Oran+0.00on par
Olympique Medea+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASM Oran ↓

Olympique Medea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

ASM Oran or draw
88%
ASM Oran or Olympique Medea
78%
Draw or Olympique Medea
34%

Winning margin

ASM Oran wins by 2+
40%
Olympique Medea wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

ASM Oran 1+ goals
84%
ASM Oran 2+ goals
55%
ASM Oran 3+ goals
28%
Olympique Medea 1+ goals
48%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
14%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

ASM Oran (draw refunded)
84%
Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASM Oran at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Olympique Medea away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASM Oran attack 2.00 + Olympique Medea defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Olympique Medea attack 0.79 + ASM Oran defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

ASM Oran scores more
66%
level
22%
Olympique Medea scores more
12%

ASM Oran at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "ASM Oran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #187: ASM Oran 1–0 Olympique Medea

ASM Oran beat Olympique Medea 1-0 in League #187 on November 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Habib Bouakeul in Oran.