Olympique Lyonnais U19 2–0 Manchester City U19

Olympique Lyonnais U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Manchester City U19

O. Solet Bomawoko 62'

H. Rafia 4'

11/27/2018

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Groupama OL Academy Décines-Charpieu (Décines-Charpieu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Olympique Lyonnais U1945%

×Draw22%

Manchester City U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique Lyonnais U19Expected goals in this matchManchester City U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.64

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.92

Manchester City U19

1.64

Olympique Lyonnais U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

2.33

creates per match

1.95

1.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Olympique Lyonnais U19

2.33

Manchester City U19

1.95

allows per match

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.33

Manchester City U19

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Lyonnais U19+0.00on par

Manchester City U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Lyonnais U19 ↓

Manchester City U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Olympique Lyonnais U19 or draw

67%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 or Manchester City U19

78%

Draw or Manchester City U19

55%

Winning margin

Olympique Lyonnais U19 wins by 2+

25%

Manchester City U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Olympique Lyonnais U19 1+ goals

85%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 2+ goals

57%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 3+ goals

30%

Manchester City U19 1+ goals

81%

Manchester City U19 2+ goals

49%

Manchester City U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Olympique Lyonnais U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Manchester City U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Lyonnais U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Manchester City U19 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Lyonnais U19 attack 2.33 + Manchester City U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Manchester City U19 attack 1.95 + Olympique Lyonnais U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Olympique Lyonnais U19 scores more

45%

level

22%

Manchester City U19 scores more

33%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Olympique Lyonnais U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

H. Rafia↳ P. Kalulu

60'

Zoubdi← L. Bolton

60'

T. Harwood-Bellis← Eric García

61'

I. Rodet← L. Perrier

62'

O. Solet Bomawoko↳ M. Caqueret

76'

B. Garré← F. Nmecha

78'

T. Thomas← M. Bard

86'

E. Lepaul← P. Kalulu

86'

T. Oualembo← H. Rafia

Olympique

Manchester

1

Anderson

5

Ogbeta

3

▼

García

2

Frimpong

10

▼

7

8

4

6

11

9

▼

Bolton

16

Barcola

26

⚽

Bomawoko

3

▼

Bard

29

Ngolou

20

A

▼

Kalulu

10

⚽

▼

Rafia

8

A

Caqueret

11

Matam

4

▼

Perrier

17

Pintor

7

Soumaré

Manager: S. Roche

61'▲I. Rodet←▼L. Perrier

78'▲T. Thomas←▼M. Bard

86'▲E. Lepaul←▼P. Kalulu

86'▲T. Oualembo←▼H. Rafia

Olympique Lyonnais U19 substitutes

34Rodet22Thomas28Lepaul9Oualembo12Lukeba1Margueron23Cherki

Manager: P. Harsley

60'▲Zoubdi←▼L. Bolton

60'▲T. Harwood-Bellis←▼Eric García

76'▲B. Garré←▼F. Nmecha

Manchester City U19 substitutes

18Zoubdi14Harwood-Bellis17Garré15Pozo12Dionkou13Scott16Bernabe

Match Recap: Olympique Lyonnais U19 vs Manchester City U19

Olympique Lyonnais U19 beat Manchester City U19 2-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 27, 2018.

Goals: H. Rafia (4'), O. Solet Bomawoko (62').

The match was played at Groupama OL Academy Décines-Charpieu (Décines-Charpieu).

Olympique Lyonnais U19 vs Manchester City U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Olympique Lyonnais U19 vs Manchester City U19