Manchester City U19 1–4 Olympique Lyonnais U19

Manchester City U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Olympique Lyonnais U19

F. Nmecha 57'

C. Augarreau 87'

M. Cherki 86'

L. Pintor 20'

P. Devarrewaere 18'

9/19/2018

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Academy Stadium (Manchester)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Manchester City U1945%

×Draw20%

Olympique Lyonnais U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester City U19Expected goals in this matchOlympique Lyonnais U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.91

Manchester City U19

2.21

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.91

Manchester City U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

2.61

creates per match

2.20

1.61

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Manchester City U19

2.61

Olympique Lyonnais U19

2.20

allows per match

Manchester City U19

1.61

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester City U19+0.00on par

Olympique Lyonnais U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City U19 ↓

Olympique Lyonnais U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Manchester City U19 or draw

66%

Manchester City U19 or Olympique Lyonnais U19

80%

Draw or Olympique Lyonnais U19

55%

Winning margin

Manchester City U19 wins by 2+

26%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Manchester City U19 1+ goals

89%

Manchester City U19 2+ goals

65%

Manchester City U19 3+ goals

38%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 1+ goals

85%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 2+ goals

57%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Manchester City U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City U19 at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Olympique Lyonnais U19 away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City U19 attack 2.61 + Olympique Lyonnais U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.21

Olympique Lyonnais U19 attack 2.20 + Manchester City U19 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Manchester City U19 scores more

45%

level

20%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 scores more

34%

Manchester City U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Manchester City U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

P. Devarrewaere↳ H. Rafia

20'

L. Pintor↳ Y. Soumaré

46'

T. Harwood-Bellis← Adrian Bernabe

46'

F. Nmecha← J. Frimpong

57'

F. Nmecha↳ I. Poveda

59'

R. Matondo← B. Garré

68'

M. Bard← Y. Soumaré

75'

C. Augarreau← H. Rafia

76'

H. Ogunby← K. Simmonds

76'

L. Perrier← T. Thomas

81'

M. Cherki← L. Pintor

86'

M. Cherki↳ M. Bard

87'

C. Augarreau↳ M. Bard

Manchester

Olympique

16

26

29

20

6

⚽

Devarrewa

10

A

▼

Rafia

8

Caqueret

11

Matam

17

⚽

▼

Pintor

7

A

▼

Soumaré

22

▼

1

8

4

5

▼

Frimpong

7

A

Poveda

3

Rosler

6

Gomes

10

▼

Bernabe

2

Dionkou

9

▼

Simmonds

11

▼

Garré

Manager: P. Harsley

46'▲T. Harwood-Bellis←▼Adrian Bernabe

46'▲F. Nmecha←▼J. Frimpong

59'▲R. Matondo←▼B. Garré

76'▲H. Ogunby←▼K. Simmonds

Manchester City U19 substitutes

12Harwood-Bellis16Nmecha17Matondo18Ogunby13Scott14Pozo15McDonald

Manager: S. Roche

68'▲M. Bard←▼Y. Soumaré

75'▲C. Augarreau←▼H. Rafia

76'▲L. Perrier←▼T. Thomas

81'▲M. Cherki←▼L. Pintor

Olympique Lyonnais U19 substitutes

3Bard18Augarreau4Perrier23Cherki2Minolien69Silva1Margueron