Olympique Lyonnais U19 2–3 Benfica U19

Olympique Lyonnais U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Benfica U19

E. Wissa 87'

D. Dib 57'

Tiago Gouveia 85'

Morato 36'

Umaro Embaló 29'

11/5/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Groupama OL Academy Décines-Charpieu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Olympique Lyonnais U1937%

×Draw21%

Benfica U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique Lyonnais U19Expected goals in this matchBenfica U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

2.08

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.96

Benfica U19

2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 24 away

2.33

creates per match

2.83

1.33

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Olympique Lyonnais U19

2.33

Benfica U19

2.83

allows per match

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.33

Benfica U19

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Lyonnais U19+0.00on par

Benfica U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Lyonnais U19 ↓

Benfica U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Olympique Lyonnais U19 or draw

58%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 or Benfica U19

79%

Draw or Benfica U19

63%

Winning margin

Olympique Lyonnais U19 wins by 2+

20%

Benfica U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Olympique Lyonnais U19 1+ goals

86%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 2+ goals

58%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 3+ goals

31%

Benfica U19 1+ goals

87%

Benfica U19 2+ goals

61%

Benfica U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Olympique Lyonnais U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Benfica U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Lyonnais U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Benfica U19 away — creates 2.83, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Lyonnais U19 attack 2.33 + Benfica U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.96

Benfica U19 attack 2.83 + Olympique Lyonnais U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Olympique Lyonnais U19 scores more

37%

level

21%

Benfica U19 scores more

42%

Benfica U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Benfica U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Umaro Embaló↳ Gonçalo Ramos

34'

Tiago Araújo← Umaro Embaló

36'

Morato

41'

E. Coly← Y. Soumaré

57'

D. Dib↳ F. da Silva

74'

Henrique Jocú← Ronaldo Camará

78'

E. Wissa← D. Dib

84'

Jair Tavares← Fábio Baptista

85'

Tiago Gouveia

86'

B. Barcola← A. Gouiri

86'

M. Mbenga← F. da Silva

87'

E. Wissa↳ E. Coly

Olympique

Benfica

1

3

2

6

4

⚽

Morato

5

▼

Baptista

10

▼

Camará

8

Bernardo

7

⚽

▼

Embaló

9

A

Ramos

11

⚽

1

3

2

5

4

8

11

▼

Soumaré

10

A

▼

Silva

9

▼

Gouiri

6

Thomas

7

⚽

▼

Dib

Manager: E. Hély

41'▲E. Coly←▼Y. Soumaré

78'▲E. Wissa←▼D. Dib

86'▲B. Barcola←▼A. Gouiri

86'▲M. Mbenga←▼F. da Silva

Olympique Lyonnais U19 substitutes

15Coly17Wissa18Barcola14Mbenga12Gusto13Felix16Ousmane

Manager: Jorge Maciel

34'▲Tiago Araújo←▼Umaro Embaló

74'▲Henrique Jocú←▼Ronaldo Camará

84'▲Jair Tavares←▼Fábio Baptista

Benfica U19 substitutes

17Araújo14Jocú16Tavares18Pereira13Penetra15Nascimento12Soares

UEFA Youth League: Olympique Lyonnais U19 2–3 Benfica U19

Benfica U19 beat Olympique Lyonnais U19 3-2 in UEFA Youth League on November 5, 2019.

Goals: Umaro Embaló (29'), Morato (36'), D. Dib (57'), Tiago Gouveia (85'), E. Wissa (87').

The match was played at Groupama OL Academy Décines-Charpieu in Décines-Charpieu.

Olympique Lyonnais U19 vs Benfica U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Olympique Lyonnais U19 2–3 Benfica U19