Benfica U19 1–2 Olympique Lyonnais U19

Benfica U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Olympique Lyonnais U19

Tiago Dantas 37' (pen)

M. Cherki 90+3', 9'

10/23/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Caixa Futebol Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Benfica U1950%

×Draw21%

Olympique Lyonnais U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benfica U19Expected goals in this matchOlympique Lyonnais U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.64

Benfica U19

2.19

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.64

Benfica U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 10 away

2.58

creates per match

2.20

1.08

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Benfica U19

2.58

Olympique Lyonnais U19

2.20

allows per match

Benfica U19

1.08

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica U19+0.00on par

Olympique Lyonnais U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica U19 ↓

Olympique Lyonnais U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Benfica U19 or draw

71%

Benfica U19 or Olympique Lyonnais U19

79%

Draw or Olympique Lyonnais U19

50%

Winning margin

Benfica U19 wins by 2+

30%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Benfica U19 1+ goals

89%

Benfica U19 2+ goals

64%

Benfica U19 3+ goals

37%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 1+ goals

81%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 2+ goals

49%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Benfica U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica U19 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

Olympique Lyonnais U19 away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica U19 attack 2.58 + Olympique Lyonnais U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.19

Olympique Lyonnais U19 attack 2.20 + Benfica U19 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Benfica U19 scores more

50%

level

21%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 scores more

29%

Benfica U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Benfica U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

M. Cherki

37'

Tiago DantasPenalty

46'

A. Pontet← A. Minolien

62'

Paulo Bernardo← Gonçalo Ramos

62'

Henrique Araújo← Ronaldo Camará

69'

E. Wissa← B. Barcola

80'

Tiago Araújo← Tiago Gouveia

80'

N. Benaissa← E. Coly

81'

Jair Tavares← Umaro Embaló

87'

Henrique Jocú← Rafael Rodrigues

90'

D. Dib← Y. Soumaré

90+3'

M. Cherki↳ P. Kalulu

Benfica

Olympique

1

Margueron

3

Bard

5

A

Kalulu

2

▼

Minolien

4

Diomande

8

Augarreau

7

▼

Soumaré

6

Thomas

10

⚽2

Cherki

9

▼

Coly

11

▼

1

3

2

6

5

▼

Rodrigues

4

Morato

10

⚽

Dantas

8

▼

Camará

7

▼

Embaló

9

▼

Ramos

11

▼

Gouveia

Manager: Jorge Maciel

62'▲Paulo Bernardo←▼Gonçalo Ramos

62'▲Henrique Araújo←▼Ronaldo Camará

80'▲Tiago Araújo←▼Tiago Gouveia

81'▲Jair Tavares←▼Umaro Embaló

87'▲Henrique Jocú←▼Rafael Rodrigues

Benfica U19 substitutes

15Bernardo18Araújo16Araújo17Tavares14Jocú12Kokubo13Araújo

Manager: E. Hély

46'▲A. Pontet←▼A. Minolien

69'▲E. Wissa←▼B. Barcola

80'▲N. Benaissa←▼E. Coly

90'▲D. Dib←▼Y. Soumaré

Olympique Lyonnais U19 substitutes

12Pontet17Wissa14Benaissa18Dib16Ousmane13Felix15Mbenga

Match Recap: Benfica U19 vs Olympique Lyonnais U19

Olympique Lyonnais U19 beat Benfica U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 23, 2019.

Goals: M. Cherki (9', 90+3'), Tiago Dantas (37' pen).

The match was played at Caixa Futebol Campus in Seixal.

Benfica U19 vs Olympique Lyonnais U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Benfica U19 vs Olympique Lyonnais U19